In the post-financial tsunami era, countries implement financial and monetary measures to stimulate the economy. Since nations such as China, the US and Japan have seen economy expanding instead of contracting, the financial tsunami is all but behind us.

根據全球半導體貿易統計組織（WSTS）預估，2009年全球半導體市場營收達2201億美元，較2008年衰退11.5％。另外，市場研究機構Gartner指出，電子終端產品出貨於2009年第二季開始復甦並向上修正。原預估2009年半導體營收衰退22.4％的預估，修正為衰退17％，且2010年可望恢復到正成長10.3％。而另一家市調機構IDC更樂觀地預測，2010年成長率為19.9％。

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) expects the global semiconductor market to contract 11.5% from 2009 to US$ 22.01 billion in 2009. Gartner indicates electronic terminal product shipments started to recover and picked up steam in the second quarter of 2009. With revision of the 22.4% decline figure to 17.0% for 2009, the market research company expects 10.3% growth for 2010. IDC, another market research company is even more positive as it predicts 19.9% growth for 2010.

展望2010年，Gartner預估終端行動裝置將使今年全球PC市場年成長達12.6％，另外如電子書、Windows 7作業系統引領換機潮、觸控應用等，在節能、減碳發展趨勢下，促使驅動IC、控制IC、電源管理IC帶動設計、晶片代工及封測的業務量。

Gartner expects the world PC market to grow by 12.6% in 2010, bolstered by mobile terminals. In addition, e-book reader, the replacement-driving Windows 7 operating system and touchscreen applications, coupled with the green trend will propel driver IC, control IC and power management IC developments, which will in turn help the chip design, sourcing and test & packaging businesses.

《圖一　 e-book reader, the replacement-driving Windows 7 operating system and touchscreen applications, coupled with the green trend will propel driver IC, control IC and power management IC developments.》

市調機構iSuppli則預測，雖然半導體產業已經逐漸有復甦的跡象，預期到2010年還能出現連續季度成長的趨勢。但必須等到2011年或2012年才會恢復整體半導體銷售額的水準。

The market research company iSuppli predicts though the semiconductor industry has shown encouraging signs of recovery and sequential quarterly increases in revenue will continue into 2010, semiconductor revenues will not be back to pre-recessionary levels until the 2011 or 2012.

2010年半導體產業成長20％

Semiconductor industry to grow by 20% in 2010

根據Gartner最新的產業展望報告指出，2010年全球半導體營收將可達2760億美元，較2009年的2310億美元成長19.9％。Gartner表示，儘管2009年半導體產業銷售年成長率衰退9.6％，但2010年則已展現強勁成長的明確跡象，預期2010年的成長幅度可達近20％。

Gartner’s new industrial outlook expects worldwide semiconductor revenue to increase to US$ 276 billion in 2010, up 19.9% from US$ 231 billion in 2009. According to Gartner, while the semiconductor market declined 9.6% in 2009, there are strong signs indicating worldwide semiconductor revenue will grow some 20% in 2010.

另外，Gartner指出，PC和記憶體為2010年半導體產業營收成長的主要動力，其中DRAM價格上漲與PC需求強勁，將帶動2010年DRAM營收成長逾55％，使得DRAM成為至今成長最為快速的設備。Gartner進一步預期，半導體產業直至2014年都將持續成長，屆時營收可望達到3040億美元。

Furthermore, Garner says PCs and memory are the primary drivers for semiconductor revenue growth in 2010 as rising DRAM prices coupled with strong PC demand will lead to over 55% DRAM revenue growth in 2010, making DRAM the fastest growing device type by far. The company also expects the semiconductor industry to show continued growth through 2014 when the market is forecast to total US$ 304 billion.

2009年谷底反彈後 台灣半導體產業再出發

Taiwan semiconductor industry’s 2009 rebound

根據經濟部工業局表示，2009年台灣半導體產業產值為1兆2382億元，較2008年衰退8.1％，其中IC設計產業產值成長3.1％，晶圓代工產業產值衰退7.9％，IC封裝產業產值衰退10.1％，IC測試業產值衰退9.7％。對比全球半導體市場11.5％衰退程度，顯示台灣累積之半導體產業技術在國際競爭能力中，確可發揮經濟復甦動能之潛力。

According to the Industrial Development Bureau, Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA), Taiwan semiconductor industry output shrank 8.1% to NT$ 1,238.2 billion in 2009. The IC design sector grew 3.1% while the IC design industry contracted 7.9%, wafer foundry services down 7.9%, IC packaging down 10.1% and IC test down 9.7%. In comparison with the 11.5% decline for world semiconductor market, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry has definitely built up know-how in a competitive world market, which can be a potential recovery driver.

《圖二　 PCs and memory are the primary drivers for semiconductor revenue growth in 2010 as rising DRAM prices》

面對金融風暴影響，各國政府努力從各種財政及貨幣等振興經濟方案刺激市場，加上中國、日本、美國等主要經濟活動已從衰退回復到擴張階段，2009年全球經濟情勢已逐步改善。

In light of the financial tsunami, governments implement financial and monetary measures to stimulate the economy. Countries such as China, the US and Japan have seen economy expanding instead of contracting. The world economy was on the road to recovery in 2009.

回顧2009年，台灣半導體產業有觸控產品、小型NB、智慧型手機及電子書等電子產品市場應用與開發需求帶動，接單狀況有所改善。另外一方面，政府亦積極關注地球暖化造成的生態危機，掌握環保、節能運用上之趨勢與脈動，同時鼓勵半導體產業朝向製程微縮化進程邁進，帶動整體上、下游產業鏈的持續發展。從晶圓代工業者不斷藉由材料技術的突破以及元件結構的改良，導入先進製程並演進至45、40奈米製程優化技術成果來看，已成為支持半導體產業經濟持續成長，搶占未來國際競爭制高點注入新的動力。

In retrospect, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry saw improved orders driven by the demand for electronic applications and developments such as touchscreen products, compact notebook computers, smartphones and e-book readers in 2009. On the other hand, the Taiwan government actively addressed the ecological crisis resulted from global warming; kept track of the green trends and developments; and urged the semiconductor industry to adopt ever-finer processes in an effort to drive the continuing development of the ecosystem. Given that wafer foundries have introduced optimized technology for 40nm and 50nm processes with breakthrough material technology and improved device architecture, they have become the new force behind Taiwan semiconductor industry’s sustained growth and future advantage in a competitive international market.

汽車電子在中國一枝獨秀呈正成長

Automotive electronics – the only growing semiconductor segment in China

至於中國大陸，根據iSuppli研究，中國半導體市場從2008年的729億美元到2009年時下降為680億美元，年成長率衰退6.7％。雖然這個數值遠低於過去中國每年半導體市場值都是成長的態勢，可是卻比全球半導體預計衰退16.5％好上許多。

An iSuppli study indicates China’s semiconductor market shrank 6.7% from US$ 72.9 billion in 2008 to US$ 68 billion in 2009. Though it was in stark contrast to the continuing annual growth of the past, the market did much better than the estimated 16.5% decline for the world semiconductor industry.

汽車電子則是中國市場2009年唯一在半導體需求呈現成長的領域。iSuppli統計，2009年汽車電子晶片銷售額達20億美元，比2008年成長11％。iSuppli也預測，2010年中國半導體市場將成長17.8％，達801億美元。無論是汽車、消費性電子、通訊或個人電腦都將帶動中國半導體市場的成長。

In 2009, automotive electronics was the only semiconductor segment in China with increasing demand. iSuppli expects the automotive electronics chip revenue to rise 11% to US$ 2 billion in 2009. iSuppli also predicts China’s semiconductor market will grow 17.8% to US$ 80.1 billion with drivers including automobile, consumer electronics, communication and personal computer.

2010年半導體產業資本支出增51％

Semiconductor industry to increase capital expenditure by 51% in 2010

市調公司IC Insights預計，今年半導體產業資本支出中的2/3，將由支出前十名的公司包攬，包括Samsung、Intel、TSMC和Toshiba。今年支出前十名的廠商投資總額預計成長67％，而產業整體支出成長率預計為51％。

The market research company IC Insights predicts the top 10 capital expenditure spenders will account for two thirds of capital expenditures in 2010, including Samsung, Intel, TSMC and Toshiba. The top 10 players are expected to increase their spending by 67% in 2010, compared with a 51% increase expected for the total semiconductor industry.

IC Insights總裁Bill McClean指出，如果不算Intel，排名前十名中的其他9家公司支出，也將成長91％。儘管許多公司計劃在2010年將產能提高一倍，但仍然無法阻止IC價格的上漲和供貨短缺的狀況發生，特別是在下半年。

"If Intel were excluded, the remaining nine companies in the top 10 ranking would increase their spending by 91% this year," said Bill McClean, president of IC Insights. However, while many companies are planning to more than double their capital outlays this year, they will not be able to prevent rising IC prices and shortages from occurring, especially during the second half of the year.

《圖三　 Samsung, Intel, TSMC and Toshiba. The top 10 players are expected to increase their spending by 67% in 2010》

目前大型廠商正在逐漸提高資本支出所佔的比重。2005年，這十家公司的支出僅佔整體半導體產業的55％，但今年已達66％。預計三星很可能成為2010年資本支出最大的廠商。

The largest companies are gradually accounting for the lion's share of investments. In 2005, the 10 companies accounted for 55% of all spending, compared with 66% this year. Samsung Electronics is likely to become the largest spender in 2010.

相較之下，Intel在提升產能方面就顯得老神在在。Intel目前擁有MPU（電腦微處理器）市場85％的市佔率，該公司深知MPU市場急需擴增產能，但目前不太會出現過度投資的狀況。這是因為Intel和AMD都希望MPU短缺的狀態可以再維持一段時間，如此一來，這兩家處理器大廠將可以持續享有穩定的出貨價格。

“Intel, by contrast, is in no rush to add significant capacity. Considering that the company holds about 85% of the total microprocessor unit (MPU) market, it knows how much MPU capacity is really needed and will not overspend. Expect MPUs to remain relatively scarce this year as Intel and AMD would like to enjoy firming average selling prices for a while longer,” he said.

台積電（TSMC）則是受到了來自全球晶圓（Global Foundries）的市場挑戰，因此計劃大幅提高產能，預計今年產能將增加79％。2010年48億美元的預算提升，將是TSMC自2000年以來最高的一次。

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) is being spurred by the challenge from GlobalFoundries. TSMC is significantly ramping up its capital spending plans, planning a 79% increase in capital outlays this year. McClean said "the US$ 4.8 billion budget for 2010 is the highest level of spending by TSMC since 2000."

綠色革命最具潛力

Green revolution shows most potential

至於2010年的熱門半導體議題，全球陸續走向綠色革命，其中三個廣受大眾關注的議題包括能源效率、照明效率及太陽能等。因此預期2010年最具發展潛力的應用也將離不開這三大主題，例如替代性能源、消費性行動裝置、無線通訊基礎設施、電動車與油電混合車電源管理裝置及LED照明系統等，都將在今年持續發光發熱。

With the ongoing green revolution, the public are most concerned with three issues: energy efficiency, lighting efficiency and solar power. Consequently, the top applications for 2010 should center on them. Alternative energy, consumer mobile devices, wireless infrastructure, power management device for electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles and LED lighting will continue to glow brightly this year.